Abstract
In recent years, the focus of global climate change research has shifted towards the assessment of regional scale consequences. This paper describes the design and initial results of a modeling study aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. To this end, modeling tools on a variety of scales are being linked. Specifically, regional climate models are linked to both a global climate model and a regional land-use change model. Outputs from regional climate simulations are subsequently used both to assess changes in public health due to heat stress and to simulate regional and urban air quality. Finally, results from these air quality simulations are coupled to health impact models. This paper focuses on the air quality modeling aspect of the project. Global and regional climate change could conceivably alter regional and urban air quality in a variety of ways through both direct and indirect effects. Rising temperatures could have a direct effect on chemical reaction rates and mixed-layer heights, while changes in synoptic circulation patterns might influence the transport and mixing of pollutants as well as the occurrence of conditions conducive to high ozone concentrations. Additionally, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors NOx and VOC are also expected to change in future decades, and it is necessary to understand whether future ozone air quality is more sensitive to changes in emissions or changes in climate. In this paper, we present initial results from regional-scale simulations for 3-months summer seasons under current and future climate conditions.