Abstract
The Loop Current governs the mesoscale circulation in the Gulf of Mexico and connects the Caribbean Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. The Loop Current evolution is influenced by various factors, including topographic controls, the rich eddy field of the region, and flow exchange through the Yucatan Channel with the neighboring Caribbean Sea. These factors contribute to the complexity of the Loop Current and, as a result, to the limitations in the predictability of the system. The focus of this study is on the evolution of the Loop Current under a) the interaction with the topography of the West Florida Shelf and b) the influence of coherent eddy fluxes originating in the Caribbean Sea. The first topic is approached by conducting realistic and semi-idealized numerical simulations to investigate the topographic interactions. The results suggest that the evolution of the Loop Current into the Gulf of Mexico is influenced by lower layer dynamical processes associated with the bottom topography in the southwestern West Florida Shelf and western Straits of Florida. The second topic is examined based on objective metrics to evaluate eddy coherence in the Caribbean Sea and quantify the evolution of coherent Caribbean eddies through the Yucatan Channel. Results show that the flow through the Yucatan Channel that is attributed to coherent anticyclonic potential vorticity fluxes between the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico facilitates Loop Current Eddy detachments, thus promoting retracted LC phases. The findings have important implications for advancing the understanding and reliable predictions of the Loop Current, highlighting the role of interaction with shelf slope and inter-basin exchange through a strait. The related dynamics are also important for understanding and predicting the physical connectivity processes between the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.