Abstract
Coral reefs are an important keystone species, supporting 25% of all marine life and generating billions of dollars in ecological services and tourism. However, this vital species is under threat facing thermal stress, ocean acidification, and hypoxia. Thermal stress is the biggest threat to corals because it causes them to expel their zooxanthella, which produces up to 90% of the energy corals need. This phenomenon known as coral bleaching results in an increased risk for disease, reduced health, reproduction, and growth and if cooler water doesn’t return corals will die off. Coral bleaching in the Caribbean was first reported in 1987 and has been occurring on a timescale of roughly 5-10 years. Although anthropogenic forcing has increased the intensity of these events, the frequency cannot be fully explained by climate change alone. Therefore, this study aims to explore Caribbean bleaching beyond climate change, examining climatic drivers like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Tripole (NAT), alongside Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) variability factors such as the Florida Current, heat fluxes, wind direction (u10, v10), and surface air temperature. This study found a high probability (60%) of bleaching occurring when El Nino conditions are active and when the Florida current is in a negative state. A strong interaction was found between AMO and ENSO on detrended Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) demonstrating that the combined effects of both climatic modes generate an enhanced warming effect. Further, it was found that the strong El Nino and AMO conditions during the summer of 2023 contributed to a 1.31˚C increase in detrended SSTA highlighting the significance of this interaction.