Abstract
Abstract
Introduction:
Diabetes is one of the leading causes of health-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. To reduce the burden of diabetes, several behavioral strategies (e.g., healthy diet and increased physical activity) have been implemented. Unfortunately, these strategies have yielded modest improvements, and in some groups (racial/ethnic minorities) the diabetes burden is mounting yearly. Recent evidence that sleep is associated with increased diabetes risk suggests that sleep may be a novel and potentially impactful target to alleviate this burden. The current study explored the long-term impact of reducing the prevalence of insufficient sleep on diabetes burden in the U.S., relative to potential positive health benefits of physical activity.
Methods:
Using a representative sample of 100,000 hypothetical participants who do not experience healthy sleep in an Agent-Based Model simulation (a dynamic simulation technique). In this model, we investigated whether reducing the prevalence of insufficient sleep (≤6 hrs.) by 10% or 20% would have a significant impact on attenuating the prevalence of diabetes over a 10-year period. We also explored whether similar observations would be made by increasing the prevalence of individuals engaging in 150 mins/week of moderate physical activity as an alternative to healthy sleep, given the difficulty many have experienced in increasing their habitual sleep time.
Results:
Based on the simulation model, reducing the prevalence of insufficient sleep by 10% or 20% attenuated the prevalence of diabetes among insufficient sleepers by 1.7% or 2.6%, respectively. By contrast, increasing the prevalence of physical activity by 10% or 20% seemed to be much less impactful. Indeed, the prevalence of diabetes was only reduced by 0.4% or 1.6%, respectively.
Conclusion:
Despite mixed results shown in experimental and clinical studies, in this particular model, reducing the prevalence of insufficient sleep at the population level could be more impactful in preventing diabetes than increasing physical activity alone in the United States. Future research should determine whether results of our simulated model could be replicated at the population level.
Support (If Any):
NIH/NINDS U54NS081765
NIMHD R01MD007716
NHLBI R25HL105444
