Abstract
The "White Replacement" conspiracy theory, that government and corporate leaders are "replacing" white people, is linked to several mass shootings. Given its recent ubiquity in mainstream elite rhetoric, concerns have arisen about how widespread beliefs in the "White Replacement" conspiracy theory are in the United States. However, political scientists have yet to understand why people believe or act upon this idea, or what the political and psychological foundations of those beliefs and actions are. Using a 2022 U.S. national survey (n=2,001), we find that a third of Americans agree that leaders are replacing white people with people of color. These beliefs are related to antisocial personality traits, various forms of nationalist and authoritarian sentiments, and negative sentiments toward immigrants, minorities, women, and the political establishment. Regression analysis however fails to find significant effects of partisanship and ideology on these beliefs. Further, we observed a relationship of these beliefs to a desire to engage in both normative (e.g., run for political office) and nonnormative political participation (e.g., commit violence). Given the popularity of White Replacement conspiracy theories in the U.S. and elsewhere, our findings suggest new avenues for research into potentially dangerous beliefs, as well as xenophobia, antisemitism, racism, sexism, extremism, and political violence.