Abstract
The investigation of the potential impact of human-induced changes on the diversity of valuable plants is crucial to human well-being. Therefore, this study aimed to project the potential distribution of valuable plant species for human use under different climate change scenarios in the Brazilian semiarid region over the next 70 years. We used distribution data for 1,123 plant species and 18 environmental predictors (climate, soil and altitude) to project species response to two radiative forcing scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 using MaxEnt. The species responses were analysed by the species range and richness in climate change scenarios compared to the current climate. In both forcing scenarios, the number of species expected to decrease their geographic ranges was twice the number expected to increase. The species range decrease varied by growth form, with averages from 4.19 % to 10.31 % in SSP2-4.5 and 11.9 % to 21.79 % in SSP5-8.5. We observed an 8 % and 41 % decrease in species richness under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Trees and herbs had the highest average species loss per area in both scenarios. The species loss was primarily observed in the southern and southeastern regions, where an increase in average annual temperature and the greatest decrease in average annual precipitation is expected. The regions projected to experience large species loss were spatially congruent with the areas strongly modified by human activities.