Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

William J Merryfield; Johanna Baehr; Lauriane Batté; Emily J Becker; Amy H Butler; Caio A. S Coelho; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Paul A Dirmeyer; Francisco J Doblas-Reyes; Daniela I. V Domeisen; Laura Ferranti; Tatiana Ilynia; Arun Kumar; Wolfgang A Müller; Michel Rixen; Andrew W Robertson; Doug M Smith; Yuhei Takaya; Matthias Tuma; Frederic Vitart; Christopher J White; Mariano S Alvarez; Constantin Ardilouze; Hannah Attard; Cory Baggett; Magdalena A Balmaseda; Asmerom F Beraki; Partha S Bhattacharjee; Roberto Bilbao; Felipe M de Andrade; Michael J DeFlorio; Leandro B Díaz; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Georgios Fragkoulidis; Sam Grainger; Benjamin W Green; Momme C Hell; Johnna M Infanti; Katharina Isensee; Takahito Kataoka; Ben P Kirtman; Nicholas P Klingaman; June-Yi Lee; Kirsten Mayer; Roseanna McKay; Jennifer V Mecking; Douglas E Miller; Nele Neddermann; Ching Ho Justin Ng; Albert Ossó; Klaus Pankatz; Simon Peatman; Kathy Pegion; Judith Perlwitz; G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel; Annika Reintges; Christoph Renkl; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Aaron Spring; Cristiana Stan; Y. Qiang Sun; Carly R Tozer; Nicolas Vigaud; Steven Woolnough; Stephen Yeager

doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1

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Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

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Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

William J Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Emily J Becker, Amy H Butler, Caio A. S Coelho, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul A Dirmeyer, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes, Daniela I. V Domeisen, …

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.101(6), pp.E869-E896

2020-06-01

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1

Abstract

Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

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Collaboration types: Industry collaboration; Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 8 Earth Sciences; 8.19 Oceanography, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; 8.19.38 ENSO
Web Of Science research areas: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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Title: Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction
Creators: William J Merryfield - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Johanna Baehr - Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Lauriane Batté - CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Emily J Becker - Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
Amy H Butler - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
Caio A. S Coelho - CPTEC/INPE Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Gokhan Danabasoglu - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado
Paul A Dirmeyer - Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, and ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
Daniela I. V Domeisen - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Laura Ferranti - ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Tatiana Ilynia - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Arun Kumar - Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland
Wolfgang A Müller - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
Michel Rixen - World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Andrew W Robertson - International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
Doug M Smith - Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Yuhei Takaya - Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Earth System Modeling Research, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Matthias Tuma - World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Frederic Vitart - ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Christopher J White - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Mariano S Alvarez - Institut Franco-Argentin d’Estudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Constantin Ardilouze - CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Hannah Attard - Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida
Cory Baggett - Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center/Innovim, LLC, College Park, Maryland
Magdalena A Balmaseda - ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Asmerom F Beraki - Global Change, Climate and Air Quality Modelling, CSIR, and Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Partha S Bhattacharjee - I.M. Systems Group, NOAA/NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, Maryland
Roberto Bilbao - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Felipe M de Andrade - National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Michael J DeFlorio - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California
Leandro B Díaz - Institut Franco-Argentin d’Estudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan - Earth System Physics Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, and Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Georgios Fragkoulidis - Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Sam Grainger - Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Benjamin W Green - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado
Momme C Hell - Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
Johnna M Infanti - Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs, and NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, Maryland
Katharina Isensee - Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Takahito Kataoka - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan
Ben P Kirtman - Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
Nicholas P Klingaman - National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
June-Yi Lee - Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, and Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea
Kirsten Mayer - Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Roseanna McKay - School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Jennifer V Mecking - Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Douglas E Miller - University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois
Nele Neddermann - Institute for Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, and International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Ching Ho Justin Ng - Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Albert Ossó - Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Klaus Pankatz - Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, and Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
Simon Peatman - School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Kathy Pegion - George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
Judith Perlwitz - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, and Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Annika Reintges - GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Christoph Renkl - Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Aaron Spring - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Cristiana Stan - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
Y. Qiang Sun - Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Carly R Tozer - Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Nicolas Vigaud - International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
Steven Woolnough - National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Stephen Yeager - National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Publication Details: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.101(6), pp.E869-E896
Academic Unit: Rosenstiel - CIMAS; Rosenstiel School; Rosenstiel - Atmospheric Sciences
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Record Identifier: 991031566273302976