Abstract
Significant geographic variability in gastrointestinal (GI) cancer-related death has been reported in the United States. We aimed to evaluate both modifiable and nonmodifiable factors associated with intercounty differences in mortality due to GI cancer.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research platform were used to calculate county-level mortality from esophageal, gastric, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers. Multivariable linear regression models were fit to adjust for county-level covariables, considering both patient (eg, sex, race, obesity, diabetes, alcohol, and smoking) and structural factors (eg, specialist density, poverty, insurance prevalence, and colon cancer screening prevalence). Intercounty variability in GI cancer-related mortality explained by these covariables was expressed as the multivariable model R2.
There were significant geographic disparities in GI cancer-related county-level mortality across the US from 2010–2019 with the ratio of mortality between 90th and 10th percentile counties ranging from 1.5 (pancreatic) to 2.1 (gastric cancer). Counties with the highest 5% mortality rates for gastric, pancreatic, and colorectal cancer were primarily in the Southeastern United States. Multivariable models explained 43%, 61%, 14%, and 39% of the intercounty variability in mortality rates for esophageal, gastric, pancreatic, and colorectal cancer, respectively. Cigarette smoking and rural residence (independent of specialist density) were most strongly associated with GI cancer–related mortality.
Both patient and structural factors contribute to significant geographic differences in mortality from GI cancers. Our findings support continued public health efforts to reduce smoking use and improve care for rural patients, which may contribute to a reduction in disparities in GI cancer–related death.
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The highest rates of death from gastrointestinal cancers occur in rural counties and in the Southeastern United States, with differences in county-level mortality from esophagus, stomach, pancreas, and colon cancer being associated with higher rates of smoking, diabetes, and obesity.
