Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates

Peter J Edmunds; Mehdi Adjeroud; Marissa L Baskett; Iliana B Baums; Ann F Budd; Robert C Carpenter; Nicholas S Fabina; Tung-Yung Fan; Erik C Franklin; Kevin Gross; Xueying Han; Lianne Jacobson; James S Klaus; Tim R McClanahan; Jennifer K O'Leary; Madeleine J H van Oppen; Xavier Pochon; Hollie M Putnam; Tyler B Smith; Michael Stat; Hugh Sweatman; Robert van Woesik; Ruth D Gates

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0107525

Back

Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates

Journal article

Open access

Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates

Peter J Edmunds, Mehdi Adjeroud, Marissa L Baskett, Iliana B Baums, Ann F Budd, Robert C Carpenter, Nicholas S Fabina, Tung-Yung Fan, Erik C Franklin, Kevin Gross, …

PloS one, Vol.9(10), pp.e107525-e107525

2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107525

PMCID: PMC4182679

PMID: 25272143

Appears in UM Open Access Research Published in PloS

Abstract

Models, Theoretical

Climate

Animals

Ecosystem

Population Density

Anthozoa

Biodiversity

Coral Reefs

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

Files and links (1)

url

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107525View

Published (Version of record) Open

Metrics

11 Record Views

49 Times Cited - Web of Science

See more details

InCites Highlights

These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output

Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.2 Marine Biology; 3.2.570 Coral Reefs
Web Of Science research areas: Ecology
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

Source: InCites

Details

Title: Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates
Creators: Peter J Edmunds - Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America
Mehdi Adjeroud - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan, France
Marissa L Baskett - Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
Iliana B Baums - Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
Ann F Budd - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America
Robert C Carpenter - Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America
Nicholas S Fabina - Center for Population Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
Tung-Yung Fan - National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan, Republic of China
Erik C Franklin - Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America
Kevin Gross - Biomathematics Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
Xueying Han - Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology and the Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
Lianne Jacobson - Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
James S Klaus - Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America
Tim R McClanahan - Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Program, Bronx, New York, United States of America
Jennifer K O'Leary - National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
Madeleine J H van Oppen - Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
Xavier Pochon - The Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand
Hollie M Putnam - Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America
Tyler B Smith - Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, United States of America
Michael Stat - The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia
Hugh Sweatman - Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
Robert van Woesik - Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, United States of America
Ruth D Gates - Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America
Publication Details: PloS one, Vol.9(10), pp.e107525-e107525
Publisher: United States
Academic Unit: Rosenstiel School; Rosenstiel - Marine Geosciences
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
PMID: 25272143
PMCID: PMC4182679
Record Identifier: 991031577501902976