Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher J L Murray; Charlton S K H Callender; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Vinay Srinivasan; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M Abay; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Nasrin Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy M X Abreu; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith J. Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M Agesa; Sargis A. Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Ali Almasi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Nicholas Arian; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Reza Assadi; T M Atey; Suleman Atique; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B Ayuk; Peter Azzopardi; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Suzanne Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Ezra Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M. Benseñor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Adam E Berman; Eduardo Bernabé; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; C Birungi; Tuhin Biswas; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Archie Bleyer; Berrak Bora Basara; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Jerry D. Brewer; Paul S Briant; Gabrielle B. Britton; Roy Burstein; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan Jesus Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alanur Çavlin; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael Moreira Claro; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Maria Magdalena Constantin; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie T. Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher S. Crowe; Petra Cukelj; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya P Dash; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Dessie; Samath D Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Eric L. Ding; Girmaye Dinsa; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kate Dolan; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R. F. Elyazar; Ahmad Ali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer H. Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Kairsten Fay; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Fariba Feizy; Ama Pokuaa Fenny; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya Foigt; Kyle J Foreman; Carla Fornari; Thomas Fürst; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Gregory M. Garcia; Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Gènova-Maleras; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Héctor Gómez-Dantés; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Jingwen Guo; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L Harb; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Meimanat M Hosseini Chavoshi; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; M. Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J Huang; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Asnake Ararsa Irenso; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa; Mohammed Shariful Islam; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Seyed M Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Anshul Kastor; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Getiye Dejenu Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Paul E. Kilgore; Daniel Kim; Jun Y Kim; Young Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A Kopec; Margaret Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Sanjay Krishnaswami; Kristopher J Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Fekede Asefa Kumsa; Michael Kutz; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Lami; Justin J. Lang; Sonia Lanksy; Van C. Lansingh; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S Lassi; Arman Latifi; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; James Lee; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Samson Leta; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Crispin Mabika; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T Mackay; Fabiana Madotto; Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Manzoor Ahmad Malik; Abdullah Al Mamun; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Ana-Laura Manda; Srikanth Mangalam; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo G. Mantovani; Chabila C Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Shakhnazarova Marina; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Tivani P. Mashamba-Thompson; Felix Masiye; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Benjamin B. Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Suresh Mehata; Sanjay Mehendale; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Saeed Mehrzadi; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera Chane Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Yodé Miangotar; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; Molly K. Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani; Mohammed A Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Glen D. L. Mola; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez; Ghobad Moradi; Mahmoudreza Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Rintaro Mori; Shane D. Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Marilita M Moschos; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich O Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; Tasha B. Murphy; Gudlavalleti V S Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Paulami Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Busisiwe P. Ncama; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R. Newton; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Grant Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R Nixon; Shuhei Nomura; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Alypio Nyandwi; Peter Nyasulu; Christopher M Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu S Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Bolajoko O. Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Sok King Ong; Alberto Ortiz; Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman; Erika Ota; Brenda Achieng Otieno; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Abayomi Samuel Oyekale; Mahesh P A; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit Pakhare; Adrian Pana; Basant Kumar Panda; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Achyut Raj Pandey; Eun-Kee Park; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Snehal Patil; Ajay Patle; George C Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Marcel de Moraes Pedroso; Emmanuel Peprah; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; William A. Petri; Max Petzold; Maxwell Pierce; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Guilherme V. Polanczyk; Maarten J. Postma; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Manorama Purwar; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Shafiur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar; Fatemeh Rajati; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Sarah E Ray; Christian Razo-García; Robert C. Reiner; Cesar Reis; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L S Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Yogesh Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Mohamadreza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Joseph Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael de Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Sundeep Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Z. Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Satish Saroshe; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Elke Schaeffner; Kathryn Schelonka; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Mario Šekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Amira Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Raad Shakir; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; MohammadBagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Heidar Sharafi; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Sharif-Alhoseini; Jayendra Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Kenji Shibuya; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Sharvari Rahul Shukla; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Abla M. Sibai; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Naris Silpakit; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Narayana Sarma V. Singam; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra N Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Moslem Soofi; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Mark Strong; Michelle L Subart; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick J Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P N Sylaja; Dillon O Sylte; Cassandra Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Nikhil Tandon; Aberash Abay Tassew; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Nega Yimer Tawye; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Jarnail Singh Thakur; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Alan J Thomson; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Hideaki Toyoshima; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Srikanth Tripathy; Thomas Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Amanuel Amanuel Tesfay Tsegay; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Muhammad Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begüm Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco Saverio Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Kia Vosoughi; Isidora S. Vujcic; Fasil Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Harvey Whiteford; Justyna Widecka; Katarzyna Widecka; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Shouling Wu; Grant M A Wyper; Gelin Xu; Tomohide Yamada; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Yasin Jemal Yasin; Pengpeng Ye; Gokalp Kadri Yentur; Alex Yeshaneh; Ebrahim M Yimer; Paul S. F. Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Zohreh Zare; Mulugeta Molla Zeleke; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taddese Alemu Zerfu; Xueying Zhang; Xiu-Ju Zhao; Maigeng Zhou; Jun Zhu; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Sanjay Zodpey; Leo Zoeckler; Alan D. Lopez; Stephen S Lim; Pankaj Agrawal

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5

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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher J L Murray, Charlton S K H Callender, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Vinay Srinivasan, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomon M Abay, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Jemal Abdela, …

Lancet (London, England), Vol.392(10159), pp.1995-2051

2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5

Abstract

Summary Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Title: Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Creators: Christopher J L Murray
Charlton S K H Callender
Xie Rachel Kulikoff
Vinay Srinivasan
Degu Abate
Kalkidan Hassen Abate
Solomon M Abay
Nooshin Abbasi
Hedayat Abbastabar
Jemal Abdela
Ahmed Abdelalim
Omar Abdel-Rahman
Alireza Abdi
Nasrin Abdoli
Ibrahim Abdollahpour
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Haftom Temesgen Abebe
Molla Abebe
Zegeye Abebe
Teshome Abuka Abebo
Ayenew Negesse Abejie
Victor Aboyans
Haftom Niguse Abraha
Daisy M X Abreu
Aklilu Roba Abrham
Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh
Manfred Accrombessi
Pawan Acharya
Abdu A. Adamu
Oladimeji Adebayo
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Victor Adekanmbi
Olatunji O. Adetokunboh
Beyene Meressa Adhena
Tara Ballav Adhikari
Mina G. Adib
Arsène Kouablan Adou
Jose C. Adsuar
Mohsen Afarideh
Ashkan Afshin
Gina Agarwal
Kareha M Agesa
Sargis A. Aghayan
Sutapa Agrawal
Alireza Ahmadi
Mehdi Ahmadi
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Sayem Ahmed
Amani Nidhal Aichour
Ibtihel Aichour
Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour
Ali S. Akanda
Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari
Mohammed Akibu
Rufus Akinyemi
Tomi Akinyemiju
Nadia Akseer
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al-Aly
Khurshid Alam
Animut Alebel
Alicia Aleman
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Ayman Al-Eyadhy
Raghib Ali
Mehran Alijanzadeh
Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
Ala'a Alkerwi
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Ali Almasi
Jordi Alonso
Rajaa Al-Raddadi
Ubai Alsharif
Khalid A Altirkawi
Nelson Alvis-Guzman
Azmeraw T. Amare
Walid Ammar
Nahla Anber
Catalina Liliana Andrei
Sofia Androudi
Megbaru Debalkie Animut
Hossein Ansari
Mustafa Geleto Ansha
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
Olatunde Aremu
Habtamu Abera Areri
Nicholas Arian
Johan Ärnlöv
Al Artaman
Krishna K. Aryal
Hamid Asayesh
Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw
Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom
Reza Assadi
T M Atey
Suleman Atique
Madhu Sudhan Atteraya
Marcel Ausloos
Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho
Ashish Awasthi
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Yohanes Ayele
Rakesh Ayer
Tambe B Ayuk
Peter Azzopardi
Tesleem Kayode Babalola
Arefeh Babazadeh
Hamid Badali
Alaa Badawi
Ayele Geleto Bali
Maciej Banach
Suzanne Barker-Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H Barrero
Huda Basaleem
Quique Bassat
Arindam Basu
Bernhard T. Baune
Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes
Ettore Beghi
Masoud Behzadifar
Meysam Behzadifar
Bayu Begashaw Bekele
Abate Bekele Belachew
Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay
Ezra Belay
Saba Abraham Belay
Yihalem Abebe Belay
Michelle L. Bell
Aminu K. Bello
Derrick A Bennett
Isabela M. Benseñor
Gilles Bergeron
Adugnaw Berhane
Adam E Berman
Eduardo Bernabé
Robert S. Bernstein
Gregory J. Bertolacci
Mircea Beuran
Suraj Bhattarai
Soumyadeep Bhaumik
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Belete Biadgo
Ali Bijani
Boris Bikbov
Nigus Bililign
Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
Sait Mentes Birlik
C Birungi
Tuhin Biswas
Hailemichael Bizuneh
Archie Bleyer
Berrak Bora Basara
Cristina Bosetti
Soufiane Boufous
Oliver J. Brady
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Michael Brainin
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Hermann Brenner
Jerry D. Brewer
Paul S Briant
Gabrielle B. Britton
Roy Burstein
Reinhard Busse
Zahid A Butt
Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
Ismael R. Campos-Nonato
Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon
Jorge Cano
Mate Car
Rosario Cárdenas
Juan Jesus Carrero
Félix Carvalho
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Jacqueline Castillo Rivas
Franz Castro
Ferrán Catalá-López
Alanur Çavlin
Ester Cerin
Julian Chalek
Hsing-Yi Chang
Jung-Chen Chang
Aparajita Chattopadhyay
Pankaj Chaturvedi
Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang
Ken Lee Chin
Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa
Abdulaal Chitheer
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Rajiv Chowdhury
Devasahayam J. Christopher
Flavia M. Cicuttini
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Cirillo
Rafael Moreira Claro
Daniel Collado-Mateo
Maria Magdalena Constantin
Sara Conti
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Leslie T. Cooper
Leslie Cornaby
Paolo Cortesi
Monica Cortinovis
Megan Costa
Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Christopher S. Crowe
Petra Cukelj
Matthew Cunningham
Alemneh Kabeta Daba
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
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Ahmad Daryani
Rajat Das Gupta
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Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa
Aditya P Dash
Nicole Davis Weaver
Dragos Virgil Davitoiu
Kairat Davletov
Diego De Leo
Jan-Walter De Neve
Meaza Girma Degefa
Louisa Degenhardt
Tizta Tilahun Degfie
Selina Deiparine
Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
Balem Betsu Demtsu
Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez
Kebede Deribe
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Don C. Des Jarlais
Getenet Dessie
Samath D Dharmaratne
Meghnath Dhimal
Daniel Dicker
Eric L. Ding
Girmaye Dinsa
Shirin Djalalinia
Huyen Phuc
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David Teye Doku
Kate Dolan
Kerrie E. Doyle
Tim Driscoll
Manisha Dubey
Eleonora Dubljanin
Eyasu Ejeta Duken
Andre Rodrigues Duraes
Soheil Ebrahimpour
David Edvardsson
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Ziad El-Khatib
Iqbal R. F. Elyazar
Ahmad Ali Enayati
Aman Yesuf Endries
Sergey Petrovich Ermakov
Babak Eshrati
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Reza Esmaeili
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Sadaf Esteghamati
Kara Estep
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Mahbobeh Faramarzi
Mohammad Fareed
Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha
André Faro
Maryam S. Farvid
Farshad Farzadfar
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Kairsten Fay
Mir Sohail Fazeli
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Fariba Feizy
Ama Pokuaa Fenny
Netsanet Fentahun
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Irina Filip
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Florian Fischer
Luisa Sorio Flor
Nataliya Foigt
Kyle J Foreman
Carla Fornari
Thomas Fürst
Takeshi Fukumoto
John E. Fuller
Nancy Fullman
Emmanuela Gakidou
Silvano Gallus
Amiran Gamkrelidze
Morsaleh Ganji
Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe
Gregory M. Garcia
Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo
Abadi Kahsu Gebre
Teshome Gebre
Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs
Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Tilayie Feto Gelano
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw
Johanna M. Geleijnse
Ricard Gènova-Maleras
Peter W. Gething
Kebede Embaye Gezae
Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami
Reza Ghadimi
Keyghobad Ghadiri
Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani
Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman
Hesam Ghiasvand
Mamata Ghimire
Aloke Gopal Ghoshal
Paramjit Gill
Tiffany K. Gill
Giorgia Giussani
Elena V. Gnedovskaya
Srinivas Goli
Ricardo Santiago Gomez
Héctor Gómez-Dantés
Philimon Gona
Amador Goodridge
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart
Ayman Grada
Giuseppe Grosso
Harish Chander Gugnani
Jingwen Guo
Yuming Guo
Prakash C. Gupta
Rahul Gupta
Rajeev Gupta
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Juanita A. Haagsma
Vladimir Hachinski
Nima Hafezi-Nejad
Tekleberhan B. Hagos
Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
Arya Haj-Mirzaian
Randah R. Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
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Graeme J. Hankey
Yuantao Hao
Hilda L Harb
Hamidreza Haririan
Josep Maria Haro
Mehedi Hasan
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Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon I. Hay
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Mohamed I Hegazy
Behzad Heibati
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Delia Hendrie
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Claudiu Herteliu
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu
Michael K. Hole
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Rajendra Kadel
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Manoochehr Karami
Behzad Karami Matin
André Karch
Corine Karema
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Ali Kazemi Karyani
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Andre Pascal Kengne
Andre Keren
Maia Kereselidze
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Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie
Alireza Khajavi
Nauman Khalid
Ibrahim A Khalil
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
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Tripti Khanna
Mona M. Khater
Alireza Khatony
Zahra Khazaeipour
Habibolah Khazaie
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Ardeshir Khosravi
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Jun Y Kim
Young Eun Kim
Yun Jin Kim
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Satar Rezaei
Shahab Rezaeian
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai
Seyed Mohammad Riahi
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Kedir Teji Roba
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Leonardo Roever
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Ali Rostami
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Perminder S. Sachdev
Basema Saddik
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
Hosein Safari
Yahya Safari
Roya Safari-Faramani
Safdarian
Sare Safi
Saeid Safiri
Rajesh Sagar
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Mohammad Ali Sahraian
Haniye Sadat Sajadi
Mohamadreza Salahshoor
Nasir Salam
Joseph Salama
Payman Salamati
Raphael de Freitas Saldanha
Zikria Saleem
Yahya Salimi
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Bruno Piassi Sao Jose
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Nizal Sarrafzadegan
Benn Sartorius
Shahabeddin Sarvi
Brijesh Sathian
Maheswar Satpathy
Arundhati R. Sawant
Monika Sawhney
Sonia Saxena
Elke Schaeffner
Kathryn Schelonka
Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider
David C. Schwebel
Falk Schwendicke
Soraya Seedat
Mario Šekerija
Sadaf G. Sepanlou
Edson Serván-Mori
Hosein Shabaninejad
Katya Anne Shackelford
Azadeh Shafieesabet
Amira Shaheen
Masood Ali Shaikh
Raad Shakir
Mehran Shams-Beyranvand
MohammadBagher Shamsi
Morteza Shamsizadeh
Heidar Sharafi
Kiomars Sharafi
Mehdi Sharif
Sharif-Alhoseini
Jayendra Sharma
Rajesh Sharma
Jun She
Aziz Sheikh
Peilin Shi
Kenji Shibuya
Mika Shigematsu
Rahman Shiri
Reza Shirkoohi
Ivy Shiue
Farhad Shokraneh
Sharvari Rahul Shukla
Si Si
Soraya Siabani
Abla M. Sibai
Tariq Jamal Siddiqi
Inga Dora Sigfusdottir
Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir
Naris Silpakit
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
João Pedro Silva
Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira
Narayana Sarma V. Singam
Jasvinder A. Singh
Narinder Pal Singh
Virendra Singh
Dhirendra N Sinha
Karen Sliwa
Adauto Martins Soares Filho
Badr Hasan Sobaih
Soheila Sobhani
Moslem Soofi
Joan B. Soriano
Ireneous N. Soyiri
Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy
Vladimir I. Starodubov
Caitlyn Steiner
Leo G. Stewart
Mark A. Stokes
Mark Strong
Michelle L Subart
Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan
Gerhard Sulo
Bruno F. Sunguya
Patrick J Sur
Ipsita Sutradhar
Bryan L. Sykes
P N Sylaja
Dillon O Sylte
Cassandra Szoeke
Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
Karen M. Tabb
Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla
Nikhil Tandon
Aberash Abay Tassew
Segen Gebremeskel Tassew
Nuno Taveira
Nega Yimer Tawye
Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi
Tigist Gashaw Tekalign
Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle
Mohamad-Hani Temsah
Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
Manaye Yihune Teshale
Belay Tessema
Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin
Jarnail Singh Thakur
Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan
Sathish Thirunavukkarasu
Nihal Thomas
Alan J Thomson
Binyam Tilahun
Quyen G. To
Marcello Tonelli
Roman Topor-Madry
Anna E. Torre
Miguel Tortajada-Girbés
Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
Hideaki Toyoshima
Bach Xuan Tran
Khanh Bao Tran
Srikanth Tripathy
Thomas Truelsen
Nu Thi Truong
Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik
Amanuel Amanuel Tesfay Tsegay
Nikolaos Tsilimparis
Lorainne Tudor Car
Kingsley N. Ukwaja
Irfan Ullah
Muhammad Usman
Olalekan A. Uthman
Selen Begüm Uzun
Muthiah Vaduganathan
Afsane Vaezi
Gaurang Vaidya
Pascual R. Valdez
Elena Varavikova
Santosh Varughese
Tommi Vasankari
Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos
Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian
Santos Villafaina
Francesco Saverio Violante
Sergey K Vladimirov
Vasily Vlassov
Stein Emil Vollset
Theo Vos
Kia Vosoughi
Isidora S. Vujcic
Fasil Wagnew
Yasir Waheed
Judd L. Walson
Yanping Wang
Yuan-Pang Wang
Elisabete Weiderpass
Robert G. Weintraub
Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs
Andrea Werdecker
Ronny Westerman
Harvey Whiteford
Justyna Widecka
Katarzyna Widecka
Tissa Wijeratne
Andrea Sylvia Winkler
Charles Shey Wiysonge
Charles D.A. Wolfe
Shouling Wu
Grant M A Wyper
Gelin Xu
Tomohide Yamada
Yuichiro Yano
Mehdi Yaseri
Yasin Jemal Yasin
Pengpeng Ye
Gokalp Kadri Yentur
Alex Yeshaneh
Ebrahim M Yimer
Paul S. F. Yip
Engida Yisma
Naohiro Yonemoto
Seok Jun Yoon
Marcel Yotebieng
Mustafa Z. Younis
Mahmoud Yousefifard
Chuanhua Yu
Vesna Zadnik
Zoubida Zaidi
Sojib Bin Zaman
Mohammad Zamani
Zohreh Zare
Mulugeta Molla Zeleke
Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe
Taddese Alemu Zerfu
Xueying Zhang
Xiu-Ju Zhao
Maigeng Zhou
Jun Zhu
Stephanie R. M. Zimsen
Sanjay Zodpey
Leo Zoeckler
Alan D. Lopez
Stephen S Lim
Pankaj Agrawal - UMMG Department of Pediatrics
Publication Details: Lancet (London, England), Vol.392(10159), pp.1995-2051
Publisher: Elsevier Limited; United Kingdom
Academic Unit: Miller School of Medicine; UMMG Dept of Pediatrics - Neonatology; UMMG Department of Pediatrics
Resource Type: Journal article
Record Identifier: 991031926697402976