Abstract
•Over 70% of simulation participants support raising taxes for public spending on adaptation in 2016, 2030, and 2050, as sea levels rise.•Over time, participants reveal increased worry and willingness to move out of the reason to avoid the impacts of sea level rise.•Worry and willingness to move increase in similar patterns across demographic subgroups including political identity, education, and income.•Little evidence is found to support the hypothesis that skeptical homeowners confirm prior beliefs by avoiding information about sea level rise.
Sea level rise threatens coastal communities around the world. Proactive investments in adaptive flood protection could reduce financial vulnerability, however it is unclear if local governments and homeowners will be willing to make those investments before it is too late. In this research we explore this issue by focusing on the case of South Florida, which is one of the most financially vulnerable regions in the world. We report the results of a novel online simulation that accelerates 348 South Florida homeowners thirty-five years into the future so that they can ‘live’ the effects of sea level rise. The results contain a mix of optimism and caution for the prospects of future adaptation. On the positive side, over 75% of participants indicated a willingness to support bond issues to pay for adaptation, even as the costs of the measures and effects of sea level rise increased over the years. Likewise, we find little evidence that politically conservative residents who normally have more skeptical views about climate change are any less inclined to support adaptation, or only look to information sources that downplay the threat. On the negative side, the number of homeowners interested in moving out of the region increases steadily over time as the sea level rises. This is driven by an increase in worry associated with viewing more information within the simulation.
