Abstract
The island of Sardinia, Italy is an increasingly popular destination for tourists, bringing humans and local fauna into closer contact resulting in changes of behavior of certain animals (Biagi et al., 2020). For example, the Gulf of Alghero off the coast of Sardinia is home to common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), that serve as sentinels for climate change and provide a source of revenue for local businesses (e.g., dolphin and whale watching) (Rako et al., 2013). It has been shown that anthropogenic factors have altered the behavior of this population of dolphins, such as their distribution and foraging strategies (La Manna et al., 2020a; La Manna et al., 2023c). This study used the software MaxEnt to model the current distribution of common bottlenose dolphins in the Gulf of Alghero and predict how future distribution models may be impacted by predicted changes in sea surface temperature (SST). Modelling the dolphin population took into account the following factors: depth; slope; aspect; sea floor habitat; boat traffic; fishery activities; and SST data. Observers went out on boats multiple times a week scanning for common bottlenose dolphins, while also recording other vessels and fish gear within the vicinity. Projections showed that bottlenose dolphins could decrease in the projected year of 2050 with the most contributing factor for current distribution models being fish net presence. However, these projections need to be viewed with caution, as the projections for future changes in SST fell outside of the range of values used to create the models and therefore could not accurately distinguish the importance of SST across the study area.